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\n\t\u0130T\u00dc U\u00e7ak ve Uzay Bilimleri Fak\u00fcltesi \u0130klim Bilimi ve Meteoroloji M\u00fchendisli\u011fi B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi ve iklim bilimci Prof. Dr. Bar\u0131\u015f \u00d6nol ile meteoroloji m\u00fchendisi Tolga Karakaya taraf\u0131ndan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, T\u00fcrkiye’deki s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n 1950-2025 d\u00f6nemindeki de\u011fi\u015fimi incelendi.<\/p>\n
\n\tG\u00fcnl\u00fck maksimum s\u0131cakl\u0131k verilerine dayanan “S\u0131cak Hava Dalgas\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck \u0130ndeksi (HWMId)” kullan\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen en \u015fiddetli de\u011feri ve y\u0131ll\u0131k toplam de\u011ferlerinin zamansal ve mekansal de\u011fi\u015fimi analiz edildi.<\/p>\n
\n\tAra\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye genelinde s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi bulunuyor. Yaz mevsimi ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131 1970-1990 d\u00f6neminde 22-23 derece aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyrederken, 2000’li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren h\u0131zlanan \u0131s\u0131nma e\u011filimiyle bu de\u011ferler 24-25 derece seviyelerine y\u00fckseldi. Ortalama yaz s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2024’te 26,1 dereceye ula\u015farak rekor k\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tOrtalama s\u0131cakl\u0131klardaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131cak hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddetindeki de\u011fi\u015fim de dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Referans d\u00f6nem 1980-2009 i\u00e7in ortalama HWMId de\u011feri tekil s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 1,29, y\u0131ll\u0131k toplamda ise HWMId de\u011feri 1,68 olarak hesapland\u0131. 2000 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u0131ll\u0131k toplam de\u011ferleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde 1,6’n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 2010 sonras\u0131nda s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddetinde belirgin bir rejim de\u011fi\u015fimi ya\u015fand\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n toplam \u015fiddet ortalamalar\u0131 tarihsel referans d\u00f6nemin yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 kat\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tS\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2023 ve 2025 yazlar\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u0131llar oldu. 2023 ve 2025 yazlar\u0131nda son 75 y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131. 2023 yaz\u0131ndaki s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u0131ll\u0131k alansal ortalamas\u0131 referans d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re 7 kattan fazla artt\u0131, 2025’te ise ayn\u0131 de\u011fer referans d\u00f6nemin yakla\u015f\u0131k 11 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tOrtalama yaz s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n en y\u00fcksek de\u011fere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 2024 yaz\u0131nda ise s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck y\u00f6n\u00fcnden referans d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re tekil s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 95, y\u0131ll\u0131k toplamda ise y\u00fczde 150 daha y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\n\tBu durum yaz mevsimi ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n rekor d\u00fczeyde y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin her zaman en \u015fiddetli s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131yla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. S\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131, atmosferik blokajlar, s\u0131cak hava ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131m\u0131, y\u00fcksek deniz y\u00fczeyi s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131, kurakl\u0131k ve toprak nemi gibi yerel ve k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekli s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin ortak katk\u0131s\u0131yla karma\u015f\u0131k ve do\u011frusal olmayan bir yap\u0131da geli\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\n\tAra\u015ft\u0131rmada, elde edilen bulgular\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz b\u00f6lgesinde iklim rejiminde temel bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret etti\u011fi belirtilerek, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131caklar\u0131n daha do\u011fru tahmin edilmesine y\u00f6nelik kapasitenin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve uyum stratejilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tBilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n gelecek senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 ele ald\u0131klar\u0131 ba\u015fka bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada ise 1976-2005 y\u0131llar\u0131nda \u0130stanbul, Ankara, Antalya, Konya ve \u0130zmir’de y\u0131lda ortalama 3-5 g\u00fcn civar\u0131nda olan s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131n\u0131n etkili oldu\u011fu g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler H\u00fck\u00fcmetleraras\u0131 \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Paneli’nin k\u00f6t\u00fcmser senaryosu alt\u0131nda, 2021\u20132050 d\u00f6neminde, \u0130stanbul, Ankara ve Konya’da yakla\u015f\u0131k 16, Antalya’da 18 ve \u0130zmir’de ise 23 g\u00fcne kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\n\tY\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise (2051-2080) \u0130stanbul ve Ankara’da yakla\u015f\u0131k 38, Antalya ve Konya’da 40 ve \u0130zmir’de ise 53 g\u00fcne kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n